Tuesday, August 24, 2010

odds and answers

There is a vending machine in the building that I work in. It has a few different soda options, but the ones I would choose are Diet Coke and Diet Dr Pepper. It's a known fact that sometimes when you select a Diet Dr Pepper the machine will accidentally dispense 2 cans. Better, sometimes it returns one extra quarter in change. It doesn't happen all the time, but it happens frequently. Enough so that it is obviously the only legitimate choice when buying a soda. At worst you spend 75 cents and get one can of Diet Dr Pepper. At best you spend 50 cents and get two cans of Diet Dr Pepper. An intermediate case you spend 75 cents and get two cans of Diet Dr Pepper. Just the possibility of either of these latter two occurrences makes it the clear choice.

Until three weeks ago. I put in my 75 cents, selected a Diet Dr Pepper and was given one can of regular Dr Pepper. To me, this is useless. I will not drink that can of soda. So I've lost 75 cents and gained nothing. I thought this was a fluke. It has happened a few times since then, although not every time - I have successfully gotten a Diet Dr Pepper once or twice.

So now, if you select a Diet Dr Pepper the odds have changed. At worst, you spend 75 cents and get two regular Dr Peppers (I have no reason to believe that this characteristic has been rectified). An intermediate is that you spend 75 cents and get only one regular Dr Pepper. But, at best, you could spend 50 cents and get two Diet Dr Peppers. The new options seem endless. You could also spend 50 cents and get one Diet Dr Pepper and one regular Dr Pepper. Or maybe you spend 75 cents and get one Diet Dr Pepper.

Alternatively, if you spend 75 cents and select Diet Coke. You will get one Diet Coke. No better. No worse.

The conundrum now is - which is the best selection? Diet Coke, where you know what you spend and what you get, or Diet Dr Pepper. The worst case is pretty bad, but the best case is pretty good. And some of the intermediates break out even. I stood there one day, trying to work out my odds, and the cost/benefit ratios and what my actual best choice would be. I promptly returned to my office, filled a glass with water from the bubbler and decided that I should put forth this much careful thought towards my dissertation project. May 2011 is rapidly approaching.

2 comments:

Hondo said...

I heart Diet Dr. Pepper

PTO Police said...

1. I love that you used "bubbler" (pronounced "bubblah" of course).
2. There should be a sticker on the vending machine with a vending machine ID number. Go to the website below and enter your info, the machine info, and the ID number and they'll mail you a refund (yes, they should mail you a check for 75 cents. I used this a couple times but mine were for $1.25 bottles and I did get $1.25 checks from the University). Now, you may get a Dr Pepper you don't want but you get your 75 cents back AND you keep the Dr Pepper. I'm sure there's another grad student around who wouldn't mind taking it off your hands. :-)

http://www.utexas.edu/parking/services/vending/refund/